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Conditions Foreshadow Tropical Storm Activity

by TBO.com News - Jul 01,2008

TAMPA - The first month of hurricane season is in the rear-view mirror without even the slightest hint of anxiety in the Atlantic.

The 2008 season has produced only Tropical Storm Arthur, which popped up May 31 in Central America.

But signs are piling up that the tropical Atlantic Ocean, cradle of hurricanes during the height of the season in August and September, could be a more fertile breeding ground than normal in coming months.

Tropical waves emerging from Africa have been stronger in this early season than last year and Atlantic Ocean water temperatures between Africa and the Caribbean Sea ran higher than normal through June.

Water temperatures in much of the tropical Atlantic last month were about 1 degree above normal for June.

Those elements are important because warm water adds fuel to hurricanes and tropical waves are the seeds of storms that form moving west across the Atlantic.

"That could be more ominous for late July and August," said Ben Nelson, state meteorologist.

And you only need to look back to 2004, when four hurricanes struck Florida. The first storm didn't form until July 31 and became Hurricane Alex.

Add to the warmer water and more vigorous tropical waves what appears to be less Saharan dust wafting off Africa this year, Nelson said.

Researchers think the African dust and dry air around it can help snuff developing storms. Some scientists think an abundance of African dust helped reduce the number of storms in 2006.

During June and much of July, most storms form in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean. Those areas have proved barren so far.

Wind circling a low pressure area over the eastern United States most of June created winds from the west over the Gulf and Caribbean. Those winds dampened any storms that tried to form, Nelson said.

In August and September most storms form as they cross the Atlantic. Storms forming near the Cape Verde Islands are the classic hurricanes that track across the ocean for days, often called Cape Verde storms.

"We could have an active Cape Verde season," Nelson said.

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©2008 Media General Inc. All Rights Reserved.
 

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