Through July, 1,390 tornadoes were officially recorded in the first seven months of a year — the most ever. The annual record for tornadoes in the USA is 1,817, set in 2004.

"This year, every month has been above average for tornadoes," says Greg Forbes, of the Weather Channel.

"The 123 deaths so far this year are the second most in the Doppler-radar era, behind only 1998, when tornadoes killed 130," Forbes says. He adds that the widespread use of Doppler radar to help predict tornadoes and protect lives began in the early 1990s. "We'd have to go back to 1974, the year of the Super Tornado Outbreak, to have a deadlier year."

Official numbers from the weather service's Storm Prediction Center since Aug. 1 aren't available yet, but preliminary reports for the period since then show as many as 300 tornadoes could be added. On top of that, October and November are usually very active for tornadoes, what's known as the nation's "second tornado season" after the main season in spring.

"We tend to see a peak in the central Plains and Midwest in October, and the Southeast USA in November," says meteorologist Gregory Carbin at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. This month, the center says there have been 17 preliminary reports of tornadoes. Preliminary reports must be checked for duplication.

The number of tornadoes this year already is well above the 1,270 tornadoes the nation normally sees in a year, according to the National Weather Service.

"2008 will compete with 2004 as far as total numbers for the year," Carbin says. "There's a good chance that 2008 will see the greatest number of observed tornadoes on record."

February saw 148 tornadoes, by far a record; the February average is 28, Forbes says. May's 460 tornadoes made it the third most active May on record.

"The pattern in May and June was quite active" Carbin says. "We'd have two to three strong storm systems a week."

Although the number of reports has risen sharply since the early 1990s, Forbes says many of the weaker tornadoes probably would not have been recorded in earlier decades. Reliable tornado records in the USA go back to 1950.

An increase in national Doppler radar coverage, population sprawl into previously little-occupied areas and greater attention to reporting have contributed to the rising number of tornado reports, according to a National Climatic Data Center report.

The report goes on to say that during the past 55 years, there has been little trend in the frequency of strong to violent tornadoes, those at EF-3 or higher on the Enhanced Fujita Scale of Tornado Intensity. EF-3 tornadoes have estimated wind speeds of 136 mph and higher.

As for future tornado trends in the USA because of climate change, a warning was sounded in 2007, when two separate studies predicted there would be an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the USA due to global warming by the year 2100.

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By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

Copyright 2008 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co. Inc.