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Mid-Atlantic not ready for sea-level rise

 by The Capital-Gazette
 Jan 20,2009

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Maryland and other Mid-Atlantic states need to do a better job of preparing for sea-level rise if climate change is as intense as scientists think it will be, according to a new federal report.

On the last business day of the Bush Administration on Friday, the federal government issued the report, "Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region."

The lengthy report - it is 784 pages long - assesses the possible effects of sea-level rise and offers suggestions for how coastal states should adapt.

Maryland has a double challenge. As sea levels rise because of expanding warmer oceans and melting glaciers, the land also is gradually sinking. States aren't adequately prepared to deal with the effects of the land sinking and the rising seas, according to the report.

"Most coastal regions are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and that shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures," the report states. "The new reality of sea-level rise due to climate change requires new consideration in managing areas to protect resources and reduce risk to humans."

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a panel of scientists from around the world, has predicted that coastal areas could see 1 meter or more of sea-level rise by the end of this century (1 meter is about 3.3 feet).

Potential effects include flooding in low-lying areas, shoreline erosion, wetlands being swallowed up by water, saltwater intrusion into underground aquifers that are sources of drinking water and more.

Just 50 centimeters (1.65 feet) of sea-level rise could destroy most of the Chesapeake Bay's wetlands, according to the report.

Areas on the Western Shore of the Chesapeake vulnerable to flooding include downtown Annapolis, Baltimore along the harbor, the Deale/Shady Side area and North Beach. Jug Bay Wetlands Sanctuary already has seen changes in marshes that stress birds, and beaches could be eaten away all along the Western Shore, according to the report.

Though Maryland has some plans for dealing with sea-level rise, such as limits on building along the shoreline, it lacks a comprehensive plan, the report states.

"The report reveals how widespread and complicated the impacts would be," said Dr. Donald Boesch, president of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science. "It isn't just someone's beach washing away. It's infrastructure. It's roads, railroads, ports. Downtown urban areas are going to be subjected to greater risks."

Dr. Boesch, an oceanographer, didn't work on this report, but he works on the Maryland Commission on Climate Change and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, which coordinates federal work on the issue.

Dr. Boesch said it's important to address climate change from two directions: we should reduce greenhouse gases that cause global warming and we need to be prepared for the consequences of global warming, such as sea-level rise.

Even if greenhouse-gas emissions are slashed, it likely won't be enough to block all of the negative effects of global warming, he said.

"We have to both think seriously about reducing emissions, but also be prepared for a range of conditions," Dr. Boesch said.

He said President-elect Barack Obama's forthcoming stimulus package, which is expected to focus on public works and infrastructure projects, is an opportunity to work on flood prevention and other controls to deal with sea-level rise.

"You want to make sure the infrastructure you're investing in is going to increase our resilience to sea-level rise and not make the built environment more vulnerable," he said.

Copyright © 2008 Capital Gazette Communications, Inc.



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