There is a 70% chance that nine to 14 named storms will form during the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said at a Thursday news conference.

Four to seven of the named storms could grow to hurricane-strength storms, with one to three of those becoming major hurricanes packing sustained winds of at least 111 mph, Mr. Locke said.

Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md., said this year’s hurricane activity could be affected by the possibility of conflicting climate factors.

On one hand, the high hurricane activity period that began in 1995 shows no sign of ending, he said. On the other hand, this year’s hurricane activity could be suppressed if an El Niño weather pattern develops in the eastern Pacific Ocean or if ocean temperatures remain cooler than normal in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

According to NOAA, an average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes, with two of those becoming major hurricanes.

Copyright © 2009 Crain Communications, Inc.