NEW YORK (AP) -- Aflac Inc. reports third-quarter results after the closing bell rings Tuesday. Following is a summary of key developments and analyst commentary related to the period.

OVERVIEW: Americans who have grown familiar with Aflac Inc.'s irritable duck mascot may be surprised to learn that the U.S. represents less than a third of the Columbus, Ga.-based company's business.

Roughly 70 percent of Aflac's insurance policies are written in Japan, where Aflac and a handful of other insurers previously enjoyed the "supplemental" insurance market to themselves.

Supplemental insurance means coverage for illnesses not covered under Japan's national health care system. The need for this type of coverage has grown as Japanese people live longer and the government tries to shift more health care costs onto the public.

In 2001, the Japanese government deregulated the supplemental insurance market, introducing a flood of competition. Since then, analysts' focus has been on how drastically this new competition will eat into Aflac's $9 billion in annual sales in Japan.

BY THE NUMBERS: Analysts polled by Thomson Financial forecast a third-quarter profit of 82 cents per share on revenue growth of 5 percent, to $3.84 billion.

ANALYST TAKE: Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Randy Binner, who this month launched coverage of Aflac with an "Outperform" rating, foresees a recovery of sales in Japan. Even with new competition and regulatory issues, he still foresees 7 percent growth.

But Citigroup analyst Colin W. Devine wrote in a research report optimism about a recovery could be premature. Aflac's stock has run up lately, reflecting a belief that sales turned the corner during the second quarter, he said. He regards this belief as too optimistic.

WHAT'S AHEAD: The Japanese government has undertaken a review of how reliably life insurers in that country have paid claims. The government found that insurers have underpaid, with Aflac as an exception.

Deutsche Bank analyst Darin C. Arita said that although it is not certain, Aflac could benefit from a regulatory clampdown on its competitors. Plus, banks looking to sell supplemental insurance to their clients may be more likely to use Aflac given its favorable review, he said.

STOCK PERFORMANCE: Aflac's stock climbed 11 percent during the third quarter to close September at $57.04.

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